Flight from Safety: How a Change to the Deposit Insurance Limit Affects Households’ Portfolio Allocation Staff Working Paper 2019-29 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel Deposit insurance protects depositors from failing banks, thus making insured deposits risk-free. When a deposit insurance limit is increased, some deposits that previously were uninsured become insured, thereby increasing the share of risk-free assets in households’ portfolios. This increase cannot simply be undone by households, because to invest in uninsured deposits, a household must first invest in insured deposits up to the limit. This basic insight is the starting point of the analysis in this paper. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, L, L5, L51
Security Transaction Taxes and Market Quality Staff Working Paper 2011-26 Anna Pomeranets, Daniel G. Weaver We examine nine changes in the New York State Security Transaction Taxes (STT) between 1932 and 1981. We find that imposing or increasing an STT results in wider bidask spreads, lower volume, and increased price impact of trades. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, G, G1, G10, G12
The Impact of Bankruptcy Reform on Insolvency Choice and Consumer Credit Staff Working Paper 2016-26 Jason Allen, Kiana Basiri We examine the impact of the 2009 amendments to the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act on insolvency decisions. Rule changes steered debtors out of division I proposals and into the more cost-effective division II proposals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, K, K3, K35
Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment Staff Working Paper 2018-6 Xiaoqing Zhou The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E2, E3
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2022-10 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labour Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-35 Sumru Altug, Serdar Kabaca This paper examines the role of the extensive and intensive margins of labour input in the context of a business cycle model with a financial friction. We document significant variation in the hours worked per worker for many emerging-market economies. Both employment and hours worked per worker are positively correlated with each other and with output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Development economics, Interest rates, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, J, J4, J40
Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators? Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
Uninsured Idiosyncratic Production Risk with Borrowing Constraints Staff Working Paper 2005-26 Francisco Covas The author analyzes a general-equilibrium model of a heterogeneous agents economy in which the agents are subject to borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G11, M, M1, M13
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2020-14 Guihai Zhao This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12