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49 Results

Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference

Staff Working Paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak
We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62

The Cost of Equity in Canada: An International Comparison

Staff Working Paper 2008-21 Jonathan Witmer
This paper calculates an implied cost of equity for 19 developed countries from 1991 to 2006. During this period, there has been a decline in the cost of equity of about 10-15 bps per year, which can be partially attributed to declining government yields and declining inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G30, G38

Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus
This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index.

Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function

This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53

A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science

Staff Working Paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir
In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71

How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz
For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence

Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev
Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62
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