Do Liquidity Proxies Measure Liquidity in Canadian Bond Markets? Staff analytical note 2017-23 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jeffrey Gao, Jabir Sandhu, Kobe Wu This analytical note evaluates the reliability of proxies for measuring liquidity in Canadian bond markets. We find that price-impact and bid-ask proxies paint a similar picture of evolving liquidity conditions to that obtained from richer measures of liquidity for benchmark Government of Canada bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
Competing Currencies in the Laboratory Staff working paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Good Volatility, Bad Volatility and Option Pricing Staff working paper 2017-52 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
November 30, 2017 Research Update - November 2017 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Central Bank Digital Currency: Motivations and Implications Staff discussion paper 2017-16 Walter Engert, Ben Fung The emergence of digital currencies such as Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain and distribution ledger technology have attracted significant attention. These developments have raised the possibility of considerable impacts on the financial system and perhaps the wider economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements Staff analytical note 2017-22 Bruno Feunou, Corey Garriott, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction Staff working paper 2017-51 Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Naoki Wakamori Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C36, D, D2, D22, L, L4, L41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax? Staff working paper 2017-50 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou The transmission of oil price shocks has been a question of central interest in macroeconomics since the 1970s. There has been renewed interest in this question after the large and persistent fall in the real price of oil in 2014–16. In the context of this debate, Ramey (2017) makes the striking claim that the existing literature on the transmission of oil price shocks is fundamentally confused about the question of how to quantify the effect of oil price shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff analytical note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting