Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1295
result(s)
Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models
Staff Working Paper 2023-59
Tao Wang
Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
E,
E2,
E21,
E7,
E71,
G,
G5,
G51
Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games
Staff Working Paper 2023-58
Erhao Xie
This paper studies the testable implication of players’ collusive or cooperative behaviour in a binary choice game with complete information. I illustrate the implementation of this test by revisiting the entry game between Walmart and Kmart.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C57,
L,
L1,
L13
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.
Staff Working Paper 2023-57
Anna Maria Mayda,
Mine Z. Senses,
Walter Steingress
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
International topics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F22,
H,
H4,
H41,
H7,
J,
J6,
J61,
J68,
R,
R5
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers
Staff Working Paper 2023-56
Sami Alpanda,
Uluc Aysun,
Serdar Kabaca
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E6,
E62,
F,
F4,
F41,
F44
Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
Staff Working Paper 2023-55
Serdar Birinci,
Youngmin Park,
Thomas Pugh,
Kurt See
We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32,
J,
J3,
J31,
J6,
J63,
J65
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans
Staff Working Paper 2023-54
Michael Boutros,
Nuno Clara,
Francisco Gomes
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Economic models,
Financial markets,
Labour markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
G,
G5,
H,
H3
Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning
Staff Working Paper 2023-53
Stephanie Houle,
Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C55,
C8,
C81,
L,
L2,
L25
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-52
Serdar Birinci,
Fatih Karahan,
Yusuf Mercan,
Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E52,
J,
J3,
J31,
J6,
J62,
J64
Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints
Staff Working Paper 2023-51
Jason Allen,
Milena Wittwer
We examine how intermediary capitalization affects asset prices in a framework that allows for intermediary market power. We introduce a model in which capital-constrained intermediaries buy or trade an asset in an imperfectly competitive market, and we show that weaker capital constraints lead to both higher prices and intermediary markups.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D40,
D44,
G,
G1,
G12,
G18,
G2,
G20,
L,
L1,
L10