E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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Inflation Targeting and Price-Level-Path Targeting in the GEM: Some Open Economy Considerations
This paper compares the performance of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price-level path targeting (PLPT) rules to stabilize the macroeconomy, in response to a series of shocks, similar to those seen in Canada and the United States over the 1983 to 2004 period. -
Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity
Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. -
ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model
The authors provide a detailed technical description of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), which replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy. -
Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies
The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. -
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. -
Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. -
Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1. -
Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation
This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). -
Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM
This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy.
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