D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

• A Microfounded Design of Interconnectedness-Based Macroprudential Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2016-6 Jose Fique

  To address the challenges posed by global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended an “additional loss absorbency requirement” for these institutions. Along these lines, I develop a microfounded design of capital surcharges that target the interconnectedness component of systemic risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D85, G, G2, G21, G28

• What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay

  The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
• November 19, 2015

  A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan

  The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J0

• Heterogeneity in the Dynamic Effects of Uncertainty on Investment

  Staff Working Paper 2015-34 Sungje Byun, Soojin Jo

  How does aggregate profit uncertainty influence investment activity at the firm level? We propose a parsimonious adaptation of a factor-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to exploit information in a subindustry sales panel for an efficient and tractable estimation of aggregate volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, D, D8, D80, E, E2, E22

• Risk Sharing in the Presence of a Public Good

  Staff Working Paper 2015-27 Josef Schroth

  This paper studies an economy where agents can spend resources on consuming a private good and on funding a public good. There is asymmetric information regarding agents’ relative preference for private versus public good consumption.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D86, E, E6, E62, H, H2, H21, H23, H7, H77

• Managerial Compensation Duration and Stock Price Manipulation

  Staff Working Paper 2015-25 Josef Schroth

  I build a model of optimal managerial compensation where managers each have a privately observed propensity to manipulate short-term stock prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G1, G14, G3, G30, M, M1, M12

• A Wake-Up-Call Theory of Contagion

  Staff Working Paper 2015-14 Christoph Bertsch, Toni Ahnert

  We propose a novel theory of financial contagion. We study global coordination games of regime change in two regions with an initially uncertain correlation of regional fundamentals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F3, G, G0, G01

• Information, Risk Sharing and Incentives in Agency Problems

  Staff Working Paper 2015-7 Jia Xie

  This paper studies the use of information for incentives and risk sharing in agency problems. When the principal is risk neutral or the outcome is contractible, risk sharing is unnecessary or completely taken care of by a contract on the outcome.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8

• International Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2014-57 Stefan Klößner, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Using the Baker et al. (2013) index of policy uncertainty for six developed countries, this paper estimates spillovers of policy uncertainty. We find that spillovers account for slightly more than one-fourth of the dynamics of policy uncertainty in these countries, with this share rising to one-half during the financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, D, D8, D80, F, F4, F42

• Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis

  Staff Working Paper 2014-30 Ali Kakhbod, Toni Ahnert

  We propose a parsimonious model of information choice in a global coordination game of regime change that is used to analyze debt crises, bank runs or currency attacks. A change in the publicly available information alters the uncertainty about the behavior of other investors.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G0, G01