D84 - Expectations; Speculations

• Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin

  Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

• Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media

  Staff Working Paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song

  News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1

• What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin

  We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31
• November 22, 2022

  Tracking the financial vulnerabilities of households and the housing market

  The Bank of Canada is publishing a new set of indicators of financial vulnerabilities. This will allow households, the private sector, financial authorities and governments to better understand and monitor the evolution of two key vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness and high house prices.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21

• Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models

  Staff Working Paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu

  We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62

• How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang

  This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31

• A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2022-33 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen, Jing Yang

  How should central banks design monetary policy in stable times and during recessions? We run a horse race between five monetary policy frameworks in an experimental laboratory to assess how well the different approaches can manage the public’s expectations and stabilize the economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E5, E52, E58

• The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh

  We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12

• The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2021-57 Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Isabelle Salle

  A multi-country consumer survey investigates why and how much households decreased their consumption in five key sectors after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted in Europe in July 2020. Beyond infection risk and precautionary saving motives, households also reported not missing some consumption items, which may indicate preference shifts and structural changes in the post-COVID-19 economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D81, D84, E, E2, E21, E6, E60, E7, E71

• Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-4 Mikael Khan, Olga Bilyk, Matthew Ackman

  Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R21