D - Microeconomics

• The Scale and Scope of Online Retail

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-19 Alex Chernoff

  This paper studies the growth of online retail over the period 1999–2012, using confidential firm-product-level data for Canada. The revenue of online retailers is decomposed into the contributions of product scope (the number of product categories) and product scale (average revenue per product category).

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Digital Currencies, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81

• Interest Rate and Renewal Risk for Mortgages

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-18 Olga Bilyk, Cameron MacDonald, Brian Peterson

  In this note, we explore two types of risk faced by holders of mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) in the context of rising interest rates: interest rate risk and renewal risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial Institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21, G28

• Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration

  Staff Working Paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier

  There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47

• Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier

  The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43

• Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda

  The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Digital Currencies, Recent economic and financial developments, Service Sector JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33

• Adverse Selection with Heterogeneously Informed Agents

  Staff Working Paper 2018-7 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini

  A model of over-the-counter markets is proposed. Some asset buyers are informed in that they can identify high quality assets. Heterogeneous sellers with private information choose what type of buyers they want to trade with.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, D8, D82, D83, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20

• Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment

  Staff Working Paper 2018-6 Xiaoqing Zhou

  The consumption boom-bust cycle in the 2000s coincided with large fluctuations in the volume of home equity borrowing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I show that homeowners largely borrowed for residential investment and not consumption.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E2, E3

• How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

  Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland

  We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy communications, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58

• Merchant Acceptance of Cash and Credit Cards at the Point of Sale

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-1 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Kerry Nield, Angelika Welte

  Recent data show that the use of credit cards in Canada has been increasing, while the use of cash has been declining. At the same time, only two-thirds of small or medium-sized businesses accept credit cards.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital Currencies, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C2, D, D1, E, E4, E41

• Recent Evolution of Canada’s Credit-to-GDP Gap: Measurement and Interpretation

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-25 Thibaut Duprey, Timothy Grieder, Dylan Hogg

  Over the past several years, the Bank for International Settlements has noted that Canada’s credit-to-GDP gap has widened and is above thresholds indicating future banking stress.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E3, E32, G, G0, G01, G1, G2, G21, G3, G30