Geoffrey R. Dunbar - Latest

• Preferences, Monetary Policy and Household Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2024-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar

  I quantify the importance of changes in household preferences on household inflation rates using 11 years of scanner data for 11,000 US households. My results suggest that changes in household preferences are an important driver of inflation dynamics at the household level.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E5, E52, E58

• Climate Variability and International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin

  This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54

• Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-52 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger

  Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q3, Q31, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production

  Staff Working Paper 2022-36 Johan Brannlund, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Reinhard Ellwanger, Matthew Krutkiewicz

  Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Climate change, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, Q, Q4, Q40, Q48, Q5, Q54

• Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar

  We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G15

• The (Un)Demand for Money in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2018-20 Casey Jones, Geoffrey R. Dunbar

  A novel dataset from the Bank of Canada is used to estimate the deposit functions for banknotes in Canada for three denominations: $1,000, $100 and $50. The broad flavour of the empirical findings is that denominations are different monies, and the structural estimates identify the underlying sources of the non-neutrality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, C36, E, E4, E41

• Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions

  Staff Working Paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur

  Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, D, D1, D11, D12, D13, I, I3, I32

• The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design

  Staff Working Paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen

  Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8

• Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004

  Staff Working Paper 2015-22 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Chunling Fu

  We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): H, H2, H26, I, I3, I32, K, K4, K42

• Demographics and the Demand for Currency

  Staff Working Paper 2014-59 Geoffrey R. Dunbar

  I use data from the Bank of Canada’s Bank Note Distribution System and exploit a natural experiment offered by the timing of Easter in the Gregorian calendar to analyze the effects of demographic change for currency demand.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, C36, E, E4, E41