Olivier Gervais - Latest
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How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. -
The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically. -
External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies
In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability. -
The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies.