Welcome and Opening Remarks

by Césaire Meh

Session 1: Long-Term Macroeconomic Trends and Developments

Chair: Césaire Meh

The Shadow Rate of Interest, Macroeconomic Trends, and Time-Varying Uncertainty

Presentation: Elmar Mertens and Benjamin Johannsen

Discussant: Bruno Feunou

Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends

Presentation: Henrique Basso, Yunus Aksoy, Tobias Grasl and Ron Smith

Discussant: Henry Siu

Keynote Presentation

Chair: Livio Stracca

Secular Stagnation on the Supply Side: US Productivity in the Short and Long Run

Presentation: Robert Gordon

Session 2: Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Linkages

Chair: Eric Santor

Global Liquidity, House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies

Presentation: Alessandro Rebucci, Ambroglio Cesa-Bianchi and Luis Felipe Cespedes

Discussant: Filipa Sa

Effects of US Quantitative Easing on Emerging Market Economies

Presentation: Saroj Bhattarai, Arpita Chatterjee and Woong Yong Park

Discussant: Garima Vasishtha

Session 3: Productivity, Labor and Trend Growth

Chair: Bernd Schnatz

Labor Reallocation and Productivity Dynamics: Financial Causes, Real Consequences

Presentation: Enisse Kharroubi, Claudio Borio, Christian Upper and Fabrizio Zampolli

Discussant: Paloma López-Garcia

Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Global Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing through Trade and Commodity Price Channels

Presentation: Ludovic Gauvin and Cyril Rebillard

Discussant: Vanessa Smith

Panel Discussion

Moderator: Stephen Murchison

Panel

Carmen Reinhart
Gauti Eggertsson
Gilles Noblet
Timothy Lane

Session 4: The Role of Leverage and Banks

Chair: Michael Ehrmann

Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk and Investment in Europe

Presentation: Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven and David Moreno

Discussant: Evren Damar

Leveraged Bubbles

Presentation: Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

Discussant: Joshua Gottlieb

Foreign Banks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Evidence from Financially Intergrated Emerging Markets

Presentation: Süheyla Özyildirim and Zeynep Önder

Discussant: Alistair Dieppe

Closing Remarks

by Michael Ehrmann