Exchange rates

• Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang

  Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G15

• Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn, James Kyeong, Rishi Vala, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-26 Patrick Aldridge, Jabir Sandhu, Sofia Tchamova

  We find that foreign central banks own a large share of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds and tend to hold their positions for longer than other types of asset managers. This buy-and-hold behaviour could offer benefits. For example, foreign central banks may be less likely than other asset managers to sell bonds and add to strains on market liquidity in periods of turmoil. However, foreign central banks’ buy-and-hold behaviour combined with their minimal lending of GoC bonds in securities-financing markets, as observed in our available data, can potentially lower liquidity because fewer GoC bonds are available for others to transact in secondary markets. Indeed, we find that higher levels of foreign central banks’ GoC bond holdings are related to lower liquidity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F30, F31, G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G12, G15, G2, G23

• Foreign exchange risk premiums and global currency factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-20 Ingomar Krohn, Mariel Yacolca Maguiña

  Global currency risk factors continue to explain a large share of the variation in the Canadian dollar during the period following the 2008–09 global financial crisis. We show that they are also systematically important for risk premiums, and only in recent months has the role of idiosyncratic country-specific risks grown.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
• July 9, 2024

  What drives up the price of groceries

  

  Weather, energy prices, and labour and import costs all contribute to higher grocery prices

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets
• June 19, 2024

  What you pay for at the pump

  

  Kun Mo

  Several factors help set gasoline prices: the costs of crude oil, refining, transporting, retailing and marketing gas, as well as taxes.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing

• International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51

• A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight

  Staff Working Paper 2023-44 Seunghoon Na, Yinxi Xie

  This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E7, E70, F, F3, F31, F4, F41
• February 16, 2023

  Our commitment to 2% inflation

  Speech summary Paul Beaudry Alberta School of Business Edmonton, Alberta

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry explains why the 2% target remains the centrepiece of the Bank of Canada’s inflation-targeting framework.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation targets
• February 16, 2023

  No two ways about it: Why the Bank is committed to getting back to 2%

  Remarks Paul Beaudry Alberta School of Business Edmonton, Alberta

  Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the benefits of being near the Bank’s 2% inflation target and the dangers of straying from it for too long.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation targets