September 14, 2017
Central bank research
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How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state. -
Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks
We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. -
Adoption of a New Payment Method: Theory and Experimental Evidence
We model the introduction of a new payment method, e.g., e-money, that competes with an existing payment method, e.g., cash. The new payment method involves relatively lower per-transaction costs for both buyers and sellers, but sellers must pay a fixed fee to accept the new payment method. -
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Sampling
In 2015, the Bank of Canada undertook the large-scale Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods. -
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Nonresponse
Nonresponse is a considerable challenge in the Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods conducted by the Bank of Canada in 2015. There are two types of nonresponse in this survey: unit nonresponse, in which a business does not reply to the entire survey, and item nonresponse, in which a business does not respond to particular questions within the survey. -
March 2, 2017
Thermometer Rising—Climate Change and Canada’s Economic Future
Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the implications of climate change—and actions to address it—for Canada’s economy and financial system. -
February 9, 2017
Getting to the Core of Inflation
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the uses and measures of core inflation in the conduct of monetary policy. -
January 31, 2017
Models and the Art and Science of Making Monetary Policy
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the evolution of economic models and the need for central bankers to apply judgment in using them. -
Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?