Household balance sheets and mortgage payment shocks Staff Analytical Note 2025-23 Thomas Michael Pugh, Saarah Sheikh, Taylor Webley Household savings in Canada have increased significantly since 2019, especially among homeowners without a mortgage. We assess how savings buffers can mitigate households’ financial risk in relation to asset repricing, mortgage payment renewal and unemployment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51
September 23, 2025 Global trade, capital flows and Canada’s prosperity Remarks Tiff Macklem Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership and the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Governor Tiff Macklem discusses four megatrends that are transforming the global economic and financial landscape. He outlines how US tariffs are affecting the Canadian economy and what structural changes are needed to ensure Canada’s prosperity. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Foreign reserves management, Inflation and prices, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
September 23, 2025 Time to roll up our sleeves Speech summary Tiff Macklem Saskatchewan Trade and Export Partnership and the Greater Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Governor Tiff Macklem outlines four megatrends that are transforming the global economic and financial landscape. He also talks about the structural reform needed to ensure Canada’s long-term prosperity. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Foreign reserves management, Inflation and prices, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 Claudia Godbout, Adam Su, Yang Xu We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R20
Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14
June 18, 2025 The impact of US trade policy on jobs and inflation in Canada Remarks Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the trade conflict with the United States has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is critical for jobs and growth, and important for prices and inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
June 18, 2025 Trade, jobs and inflation Speech summary Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the trade conflict with the United States and how it is has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is important for jobs, growth and price stability in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
June 5, 2025 Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy Speech summary Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how we make better decisions by looking at a variety of data and talking with Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
June 5, 2025 Talking to Canadians: How real-world insights shape monetary policy Remarks Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how the Bank of Canada is using non-traditional data to better inform its monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
May 8, 2025 Release of the Financial Stability Report Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments