November 22, 2022 Tracking the financial vulnerabilities of households and the housing market The Bank of Canada is publishing a new set of indicators of financial vulnerabilities. This will allow households, the private sector, financial authorities and governments to better understand and monitor the evolution of two key vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness and high house prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21
November 22, 2022 Monitoring the health of Canada’s financial system Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Young Canadians in Finance Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses risks and vulnerabilities in our financial system and what the Bank of Canada is doing to support financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments
November 22, 2022 Financial stability in times of uncertainty Remarks Carolyn Rogers Young Canadians in Finance Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses the Bank’s work to monitor risks and vulnerabilities in Canada’s financial system and support greater financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments
Variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments: Examining trigger rates Staff Analytical Note 2022-19 Stephen Murchison, Maria teNyenhuis We estimate the share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that reached the so-called trigger rate—the interest rate at which mortgage payments no longer cover the principal. Amid rising interest rates, this share was close to 50% at the end of October 2022 and could potentially reach 65% in 2023. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21
Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, J, J2, J20, J6, J63, J64
November 10, 2022 Getting back to stable prices and a balanced jobs market Speech summary Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
November 10, 2022 Restoring labour market balance and price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
October 6, 2022 What’s happening to inflation and why it matters Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation has evolved in recent months and explains what the Bank is watching as it takes action to return inflation to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
October 6, 2022 Restoring price stability for all Canadians Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem explains how inflation in Canada reflects more and more what’s happening with domestic demand and what the Bank is watching as it works to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
September 20, 2022 Macroeconomics of the 2020s: What we’ve learned, and what’s to come Remarks Paul Beaudry University of Waterloo Faculty of Arts Distinguished Lecture in Economics Waterloo, Ontario Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the macroeconomic lessons we’ve learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, and what lies ahead to bring inflation back to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments