Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, E7, E71, G, G5, G51
Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model Staff Working Paper 2025-22 Kim Huynh, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We study consumer cash inventory behavior by developing a dynamic model of forward-looking consumers and estimating structural parameters of the model using detailed consumer survey data. Consumers facing holding and withdrawal costs solve a discrete-time continuous-control dynamic programming problem to optimally use cash at the point of sale. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E41, E42, G, G2, G21
2024 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash in an Era of Alternatives Staff Discussion Paper 2025-12 Marie-Hélène Felt, Anna Chernesky, Angelika Welte We present core findings from the 2024 Methods-of-Payment Survey, highlighting results from both the survey questionnaire and three-day shopping diary. Although cash holdings have increased in nominal terms, we find that cash usage remains unchanged since 2020. Mobile and other alternative payment methods continue to grow in importance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41
Firm Heterogeneity and Adverse Selection in External Finance: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications Staff Working Paper 2025-20 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Thomas Winberry, Toni Whited We develop a heterogeneous firm macro model with private information and quantify the aggregate relevance of asymmetric information. We find that a spike in private information account for 40% of the decline in aggregate investment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and made monetary stimulus significantly less effective. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets, Firm dynamics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E5, E52, G, G3, G30
Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations Staff Discussion Paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71
How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 Claudia Godbout, Adam Su, Yang Xu We update an assessment of potential changes in payments that mortgage holders could face at renewal in 2025 and 2026. We use an enhanced dataset (RESL2) that provides a more accurate starting point for mortgage balances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R20
The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23
Examining the Links Between Firm Performance and Insolvency Staff Discussion Paper 2025-10 Dylan Hogg, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli Assessing insolvency dynamics is essential for evaluating the financial health of non-financial corporations and mitigating macroeconomic and financial stability risks. This study leverages a newly created Statistics Canada dataset linking insolvency records with firm-level financial data to develop a robust framework for monitoring insolvency risk Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, G, G3, G33, L, L2, L20
Incorporating Trip-Chaining to Measuring Canadians’ Access to Cash Staff Working Paper 2025-16 Heng Chen, Hongyu Xiao Our paper employs smartphone data to construct an improved cash access metric by accounting for both spatial agglomeration and households’ travel patterns. We find that incorporating trip-chaining into the travel metric could show that travel costs are from 15 to 25% less than not incorporating trip-chaining and that the biggest decrease is driven by rural residents. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, O, O1, O18, R, R2, R22, R4, R41
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? Staff Discussion Paper 2025-7 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63