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12 Results

Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market

Staff Working Paper 2021-18 Zhentong Lu, Sisi Zhang, Jian Hong
How do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): O, O1, O18, R, R3, R31, R38

How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers

Staff Working Paper 2020-18 Katya Kartashova, Xiaoqing Zhou
We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes.

The Effect of Mortgage Rate Resets on Debt: Evidence from TransUnion (Part I)

Staff Analytical Note 2020-2 Katya Kartashova
This note studies how decreases in mortgage rates affect the behaviour of borrowers in terms of spending on durable goods and repaying debt.

The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou
How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false.

Can the Common-Factor Hypothesis Explain the Observed Housing Wealth Effect?

Staff Working Paper 2016-62 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert
The common-factor hypothesis is one possible explanation for the housing wealth effect. Under this hypothesis, house price appreciation is related to changes in consumption as long as the available proxies for the common driver of housing and non-housing demand are noisy and housing supply is not perfectly elastic.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, R, R3, R31

The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky
The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31

Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?

Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams
There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission.
November 4, 2014

Housing Finance in Canada: Looking Back to Move Forward

The Canadian system of housing finance proved to be resilient and efficient during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. The system’s effectiveness is the result of a rigorous prudential regulatory and supervisory regime coupled with targeted government guarantees of mortgage insurance and securitization products.
Topic(s): Housing JEL Code(s): G21, R31, R38
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