Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40
Central Bank Digital Currencies and Banking: Literature Review and New Questions Staff Discussion Paper 2023-4 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Yu Zhu We review the nascent but fast-growing literature on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), focusing on their potential impacts on private banks. We evaluate these impacts in three areas of traditional banking: payments, lending and liquidity and maturity transformation. We also take a broader look at CBDCs and highlight two promising directions for future research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58, G, G0, G00, L, L0, L00
Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey Staff Analytical Note 2023-1 Annick Demers, Tamara Gomes, Stephane Gignac The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12, G14
Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle Staff Working Paper 2023-9 Laure Simon Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D15, E, E2, E21, E6, E62, J, J1, J11, J2, J24
Stress Relief? Funding Structures and Resilience to the Covid Shock Staff Working Paper 2023-7 Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt Funding structures affected the amount of financial stress different countries and sectors experienced during the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020. Policy responses targeting specific vulnerabilities were more effective at mitigating this stress than those supporting banks or the economy more broadly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E65, F, F3, F31, F36, F4, F42, G, G1, G18, G2, G23, G3, G38
Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) Technical Report No. 123 Kerem Tuzcuoglu The Risk Amplification Macro Model (RAMM) is a new nonlinear two-country dynamic model that captures rare but severe adverse shocks. The RAMM can be used to assess the financial stability implications of both domestic and foreign-originated risk scenarios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E44, F, F4, F44
(Un)Conventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Staff Working Paper 2023-6 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie We build a tractable New Keynesian model to study and compare four types of monetary and fiscal policy: policy rate adjustments, quantitative easing, lump-sum fiscal transfers and government spending. We find that tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy, and optimal policy coordination needs at least two of these four policy instruments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E6, E61, E62, E63
The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation Staff Discussion Paper 2023-3 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee, Luis Uzeda The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective Staff Working Paper 2023-5 Paul Beaudry, Katya Kartashova, Césaire Meh Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, G, G5, G51, H, H6
Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context Staff Discussion Paper 2023-2 Monica Jain, Walter Muiruri, Jonathan Witmer, Sharon Kozicki, Jeremy Harrison This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58