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115 Results

October 19, 2016

Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

The Case of Serial Disappointment

Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.
June 15, 2016

The Canadian Economy: A Progress Report

Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Yukon Chamber of Commerce Whitehorse, Yukon
Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the outlook for Canada’s economy and the adjustment to lower resource prices.

The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes

Staff Working Paper 2016-9 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions.

What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

Tractable Term Structure Models

We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation.
November 19, 2015

A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada

The Bank of Canada recently launched a quarterly survey to measure the expectations of Canadian households: the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). The data collected provide comprehensive information about consumer expectations for and uncertainty about inflation, the labour market and household finance. This article describes the CSCE and illustrates its potential to offer rich information about Canadian consumers for researchers and policy-makers.

Forward Guidance at the Effective Lower Bound: International Experience

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-15 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Lori Rennison
Forward guidance is one of the policy tools that a central bank can implement if it seeks to provide additional monetary stimulus when it is operating at the effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates. It became more widely used during and after the global financial crisis.
October 12, 2015

Integrating Financial Stability into Monetary Policy

Remarks Stephen S. Poloz National Association for Business Economics Washington, D.C.
Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s research agenda and how it supports efforts to integrate financial stability concerns into monetary policy.
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