December 9, 2021 Economic progress report: A recovery unlike any other Remarks (delivered virtually) Toni Gravelle Surrey Board of Trade Surrey, British Columbia Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle provides an economic update and discusses the relationship between supply bottlenecks and inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff Working Paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48
Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory Staff Working Paper 2021-58 Alexandre Corhay, Thilo Kind, Howard Kung, Gonzalo Morales Do bond risk premiums influence the effects of debt maturity operations? Using a model with realistic bond risk premiums, we show that maturity operations have sizable effects on expected inflation and output when the central bank passively responds to inflation and the fiscal authority weakly responds to the debt level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E6, E63, G, G1, G12
November 23, 2021 Checking up on Canada’s financial system Speech summary Paul Beaudry Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry speaks about the strength and resilience of the financial system throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery. He also outlines key vulnerabilities and risks going forward. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates
November 23, 2021 Financial stability through the pandemic and beyond Remarks (delivered virtually) Paul Beaudry OSC Dialogue, Ontario Securities Commission Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry provides an update on financial vulnerabilities and risks in Canada, including those stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing, Interest rates
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51
A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks Staff Working Paper 2021-29 Xu Zhang Combining various high frequency financial data with central bank projections, I construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks not predictable by the public information preceding a central bank’s announcements. I then study the causal effects of monetary policy on the macro economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand Staff Working Paper 2021-27 Paul Beaudry, Césaire Meh Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63, H, H3, H6, H63
June 10, 2021 Going digital has helped the economy through COVID-19 Speech summary Timothy Lane Western Canadian Chapters of Advocis Edmonton, Alberta, Vancouver, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He also discusses how adopting digital technologies supported resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments