An Up-to-Date and Improved BVAR Model of the Canadian Economy Staff Working Paper 1994-4 Daniel Racette, Jacques Raynauld, Christian Sigouin In this paper, we estimate a fully optimized BVAR model of the Canadian economy for the period 1971-87. The model is well-adapted to the features of a small open economy. We show how it can be used as an input in the monetary policy process either as a forecasting instrument or an analytical tool. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models
Monetary Policy, Uncertainty and the Presumption of Linearity Technical Report No. 63 Douglas Laxton, David Rose, Robert Tetlow This report shows that extreme conditions and volatility in markets are much more likely to result from systematic policy errors in gauging and responding to inflationary pressures in an economy than from unfortunate random shocks. We describe a simple model that incorporates the key features of the policy control process. We use two versions of […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Un modèle du coût du financement et du ratio d'endettement des entreprises non financières Technical Report No. 61 Jean-François Fillion The main aim of this paper is to calculate the cost of financing for Canadian non-financial businesses and to develop a model to explain financing cost trends on the basis of selected macroeconomic variables. The model described herein is a system based on four equations: one for the real after-tax cost of financing; one for […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models
Les effets macroéconomiques des déficits budgétaires : résultats d'un modèle de simulation Technical Report No. 47 Pierre Duguay, Yves Rabeau An increase in a government deficit can have two effects: short-term stimulation of aggregate demand and employment, and long-term contraction of potential output. In this paper, these effects are illustrated using a dynamic, macroeconomic simulation model. The model is not a forecasting tool; it is intended to bridge the gap between Keynesian and supply-side economics […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): H, H6, H60
A Comparison of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes in a Small Dynamic Open-Economy Simulation Model Technical Report No. 42 David Longworth, Stephen S. Poloz In this paper, the simulation properties of a small, dynamic, open-economy IS-LM-Aggregate Supply model are examined under a variety of alternative policy rule assumptions. These assumptions include rigid money stock, exchange rate and nominal income targets, as well as less rigid policy rules that recognize information limitations. The model that is used consists of four […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
An Integrated Model of the Portfolio Behaviour of the Canadian Household Sector: 1968-1983 Technical Report No. 41 Stephen S. Poloz An econometric model of the portfolio behaviour of the Canadian household sector is developed to study the linkages between demands for financial assets. The theoretical basis for the model is a version of the well-known Brainard-Tobin framework, which is extended to integrate the consumption-savings and portfolio-allocation decisions. This integration allows joint estimation of the real […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11
Responses of Various Econometric Models to Selected Policy Shocks Technical Report No. 38 Brian O'Reilly, Graydon Paulin, Philip Smith In July, 1982 a seminar was held in Ottawa to compare the responses of nine major econometric models to a previously specified set of shocks to the Canadian economy. At the seminar, which was sponsored by the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, participants presented the results of their simulations and discussed the […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17
An Econometric Model of the Steel Trade Technical Report No. 33 Richard Dion In this report, the author uses steel as a case study for an analysis at the industrial level of forces at work in the international economy that have had an important impact on recent Canadian economic performance. Prominent among those forces are cost competitiveness and aggregate demand in Canada and abroad. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14