Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013 Staff working paper 2016-48 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto Using a novel data set for 17 countries dating from 1900 to 2013, we characterize business cycles in both small developed and developing countries in a model with financial frictions and a common shock structure. We estimate the model jointly for these 17 countries using Bayesian methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, F, F4, F41, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Interpreting Volatility Shocks as Preference Shocks Staff working paper 2016-45 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the relationship between volatility shocks and preference shocks in an analytically tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. I show that there exists an explicit mapping between volatility shocks and preference shocks, and a rise in volatility generates the same impulse responses of macroeconomic aggregates as a negative preference shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye Staff analytical note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Household Risk Assessment Model Technical report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff analytical note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains? Staff analytical note 2016-9 Robert Fay, James Ketcheson Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff analytical note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada Staff analytical note 2016-7 Laurence Savoie-Chabot Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Un examen plus approfondi des pressions salariales au Canada Staff analytical note 2016-6 Dany Brouillette, Laurence Savoie-Chabot In this note, we provide a brief outline of the recent developments in wage measures in Canada. We then assess whether wage growth is consistent with its fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates Staff working paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting