Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets Staff working paper 2016-50 David Cimon The primary focus of this paper is to study conflict of interest in the brokerage market. Brokers face a conflict of interest when the commissions they receive from investors differ from the costs imposed by different trading venues. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Fragility of Resale Markets for Securitized Assets and Policy of Asset Purchases Staff working paper 2016-46 Martin Kuncl Markets for securitized assets were characterized by high liquidity prior to the recent financial crisis and by a sudden market dry-up at the onset of the crisis. A general equilibrium model with heterogeneous investment opportunities and information frictions predicts that, in boom periods or mild recessions, the degree of adverse selection in resale markets for securitized assets is limited because of the reputation-based guarantees by asset originators. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, G, G0, G01, G2 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff working paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff working paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity Staff working paper 2016-35 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon, Chayawat Ornthanalai We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Relationships in the Interbank Market Staff working paper 2016-33 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet In the interbank market, banks will sometimes trade below the central bank's deposit rate. We explain this anomaly using a theory based on market frictions and relationship lending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns Staff working paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models
Clearing and Settlement Systems from Around the World: A Qualitative Analysis Staff discussion paper 2016-14 Michael Tompkins, Ariel Olivares As Canada continues to engage in a dialogue to develop the approach to modernizing its core payment systems, we analyze the core payment systems that exist in countries around the world. We study payment systems in 27 jurisdictions, encompassing a broad range of geographic regions, through three levels of analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L15, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Identification and Estimation of Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions with Unobserved Auction Heterogeneity Staff working paper 2016-23 Serafin Grundl, Yu Zhu This paper shows point identification in first-price auction models with risk aversion and unobserved auction heterogeneity by exploiting multiple bids from each auction and variation in the number of bidders. The required exclusion restriction is shown to be consistent with a large class of entry models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, L, L0, L00 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Retail Order Flow Segmentation Staff working paper 2016-20 Corey Garriott, Adrian Walton In August 2012, the New York Stock Exchange launched the Retail Liquidity Program (RLP), a trading facility that enables participating organizations to quote dark limit orders executable only by retail traders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure