November 15, 2012 Access, Competition and Risk in Centrally Cleared Markets Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2012 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Joshua Slive Central counterparties can make over-the-counter markets more resilient and reduce systemic risk by mitigating and managing counterparty credit risk. These benefits are maximized when access to central counterparties is available to a wide range of market participants. In an over-the-counter market, there is an important trade-off between risk and competition. A model of an over-the-counter market shows how risk and competition could be influenced by the incentives of market participants as they move to central clearing. In a centrally cleared market, there may be less risk when participation is high. This helps to explain why regulators have put in place requirements for fair, open and risk-based access criteria. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, L, L1, L13
Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields Staff Working Paper 2012-37 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12
When Lower Risk Increases Profit: Competition and Control of a Central Counterparty Staff Working Paper 2012-35 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Joshua Slive We model the behavior of dealers in Over-the-Counter (OTC) derivatives markets where a small number of dealers trade with a continuum of heterogeneous clients (hedgers). Imperfect competition and (endogenous) default induce a familiar trade-off between competition and risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G18
The Economic Value of Realized Volatility: Using High-Frequency Returns for Option Valuation Staff Working Paper 2012-34 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Kris Jacobs, Nour Meddahi Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13
Does the Buck Stop Here? A Comparison of Withdrawals from Money Market Mutual Funds with Floating and Constant Share Prices Staff Working Paper 2012-25 Jonathan Witmer Recent reform proposals call for an elimination of the constant net asset value (NAV) or “buck” in money market mutual funds to reduce the occurrence of runs. Outside the United States, there are several countries that have money market mutual funds with and without constant NAVs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G20
August 16, 2012 Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2012 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
The U.S.-Dollar Supranational Zero-Coupon Curve Staff Discussion Paper 2012-5 Francisco Rivadeneyra The author describes the construction of the U.S.-dollar-denominated zero-coupon curve for the supranational asset class from 1995 to 2010. He uses yield data from a crosssection of bonds issued by AAA-rated supranational entities to fit the Svensson (1995) term-structure model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15
Risk Premium, Variance Premium and the Maturity Structure of Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2012-11 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Abderrahim Taamouti, Roméo Tedongap Expected returns vary when investors face time-varying investment opportunities. Long-run risk models (Bansal and Yaron 2004) and no-arbitrage affine models (Duffie, Pan, and Singleton 2000) emphasize sources of risk that are not observable to the econometrician. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13
Central Bank Communication or the Media’s Interpretation: What Moves Markets? Staff Working Paper 2012-9 Scott Hendry The goal of this paper is to investigate what type of information from Bank of Canada communication statements or the market commentary based on these statements has a significant effect on the volatility or level of returns in a short-term interest rate market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14
An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks Staff Working Paper 2012-5 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15