Labour Supply and Firm Size Staff working paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations Staff working paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32, F, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight Staff working paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Relationships in the Interbank Market Staff working paper 2016-33 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet In the interbank market, banks will sometimes trade below the central bank's deposit rate. We explain this anomaly using a theory based on market frictions and relationship lending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Bouncing Back: How Mothballing Curbs Prices Staff working paper 2024-51 Thibaut Duprey, Artur Kotlicki, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of mothballed businesses—those that closed temporarily—on sectoral equilibrium prices after a negative demand shock. Our results suggest that pandemic fiscal support for temporary closures may have eased inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share Staff working paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle Staff working paper 2023-9 Laure Simon Using micro data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey and Current Population Survey, I document that government spending shocks affect individuals differently over the life cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D15, E, E2, E21, E6, E62, J, J1, J11, J2, J24 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Child Skill Production: Accounting for Parental and Market-Based Time and Goods Investments Staff working paper 2020-36 Elizabeth Caucutt, Lance Lochner, Joseph Mullins, Youngmin Park Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, H, H3, H31, J, J2, J22, J24 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Trading on Long-term Information Staff working paper 2020-20 Corey Garriott, Ryan Riordan Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Competition for Exclusivity and Customer Lock-in: Evidence from Copyright Enforcement in China Staff working paper 2023-43 Youming Liu This paper studies the music streaming industry and argues that having exclusive rights granted by copyright law drives firms to offer exclusive content to lock in customers. I employ theoretical and descriptive empirical analysis, along with a dynamic structural model, to support the argument and explore policies for improving competition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L4, L42, L5, L51 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity