Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff discussion paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada Staff analytical note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): B, B2, B23, C, C1, C13, C2, C23, E, E1, E17, E3, E37, E6, E62, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change
Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound Staff discussion paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
May 23, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2004 Cover page The Millennial Celebrations in Ancient Rome The coins pictured on the cover range from approximately 20 to 35 mm in diameter and form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields Staff working paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach Staff working paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff working paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures Staff working paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
December 13, 2007 Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Marc-André Gosselin Gosselin examines and reports on the various factors that contribute to successful inflation targeting. Using a panel of 21 inflation-targeting countries over the period 1990Q1-2007Q2, Gosselin finds that the ability of central banks to hit their targets varies considerably. Some of these differences can be explained by exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal deficits, and differences in financial development. Others are explained by differences in the targeting framework itself and the manner in which it is implemented. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I Staff analytical note 2016-15 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness