Classical Decomposition of Markowitz Portfolio Selection Staff Working Paper 2020-21 Christopher Demone, Olivia Di Matteo, Barbara Collignon In this study, we enhance Markowitz portfolio selection with graph theory for the analysis of two portfolios composed of either EU or US assets. Using a threshold-based decomposition of their respective covariance matrices, we perturb the level of risk in each portfolio and build the corresponding sets of graphs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research JEL Code(s): C, C0, C02
A Consistent Bootstrap Test for Conditional Density Functions with Time-Dependent Data Staff Working Paper 2001-21 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz This paper describes a new test for evaluating conditional density functions that remains valid when the data are time-dependent and that is therefore applicable to forecasting problems. We show that the test statistic is asymptotically distributed standard normal under the null hypothesis, and diverges to infinity when the null hypothesis is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, E, E3, E37
Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference Staff Working Paper 2025-14 Helmut Lütkepohl, Fei Shang, Luis Uzeda, Tomasz Woźniak We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C12, C3, C32, E, E6, E62
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2021-52 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, E37
Shift Contagion in Asset Markets Staff Working Paper 2003-5 Toni Gravelle, Maral Kichian, James Morley The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion." Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F4, F42, G, G1, G15
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation Staff Analytical Note 2023-12 Panagiotis Bouras, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Jacob Short We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D4, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach Staff Working Paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32
Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C6, C65, C8, C81, E, E4, E42, E5, E51
Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model Staff Working Paper 2025-22 Kim Huynh, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We study consumer cash inventory behavior by developing a dynamic model of forward-looking consumers and estimating structural parameters of the model using detailed consumer survey data. Consumers facing holding and withdrawal costs solve a discrete-time continuous-control dynamic programming problem to optimally use cash at the point of sale. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D14, E, E4, E41, E42, G, G2, G21
October 3, 2023 Understanding the unusual: How firms set prices during periods of high inflation Remarks Nicolas Vincent Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent discusses how firms set their prices and how pricing behaviour changed in our recent environment of high inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Price stability