Measurement Bias in the Canadian Consumer Price Index Staff Working Paper 2005-39 James Rossiter The consumer price index (CPI) is the most commonly used measure of inflation in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Digitalization: Productivity Staff Discussion Paper 2023-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Temel Taskin We examine the relationship between digitalization and productivity, the factors that influence this relationship, and how digitalization’s effect on productivity could change firm behaviour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Digitalization, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, L, L1, L11, O, O4, O47, O5, O51
Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach Staff Working Paper 1998-5 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Greg Tkacz This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E43
Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads? Staff Working Paper 2008-25 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F34, G, G1, G12, G15
Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective Staff Working Paper 2007-49 David Bolder, Shudan Liu The primary objective of this paper is to compare a variety of joint models of the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
December 20, 2004 The New International Monetary Order Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2004-2005 Mark Carney Mark Carney, Senior Associate Deputy Minister, Department of Finance, Speech to the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Should the Central Bank Issue E-money? Staff Working Paper 2018-58 Charles M. Kahn, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Tsz-Nga Wong Should a central bank take over the provision of e-money, a circulable electronic liability? We discuss how e-money technology changes the tradeoff between public and private provision, and the tradeoff between e-money and a central bank's existing liabilities like bank notes and reserves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E58
November 13, 2014 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 In this issue, Bank staff discuss recent developments in experimental macroeconomics, research results on price-level and unemployment thresholds in forward guidance, and the spillover effects of quantitative easing in advance economies. Articles also explore the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms as well as their use of financial derivatives. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? Staff Discussion Paper 2025-7 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63
May 11, 2017 Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Perspective of a Small Open Economy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Lena Suchanek, Jing Yang How do unconventional monetary policies like quantitative easing and negative interest rates affect domestic financial conditions and the broader economy in small open econo-mies, such as Canada? These policies are effective in depreciating the exchange rate in small open economies, while lower interest rates are also passed through to the economy, albeit only partially. When conventional monetary policy is close to its limits, fiscal policy may be a more important complement to monetary policy in a small economy, particularly if global demand for safe assets compresses long-term interest rates. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65