Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
Does Indexation Bias the Estimated Frequency of Price Adjustment? Staff Working Paper 2007-15 Maral Kichian, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We assess the implications of price indexation for estimated frequency of price adjustment in sticky price models of business cycles. These models predominantly assume that non-reoptimized prices are indexed to lagged or average inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12
Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios Staff Working Paper 2012-1 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model Staff Working Paper 2022-51 Cars Hommes, Mario He, Sebastian Poledna, Melissa Siqueira, Yang Zhang The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, D, D2, D22, D8, D83, E, E1, E17
Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47
The Economic Theory of Retail Pricing: A Survey Staff Working Paper 2004-8 Oana Secrieru The types of contracts that arise in a typical vertical manufacturer–retailer relationship are more sophisticated than usually assumed in standard macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, L, L2, L22, L4, L42
Exploring Differences in Household Debt Across Euro Area Countries and the United States Staff Working Paper 2015-16 Dimitris Christelis, Michael Ehrmann, Dimitris Georgarakos We use internationally comparable household-level data for ten euro area economies and the United States to investigate cross-country differences in debt holdings and the potential of debt overhang. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, G, G1, G11
February 8, 2016 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability—Looking for the Right Tools Remarks Timothy Lane HEC Montréal Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the links between monetary policy and financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet
Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach Staff Working Paper 2015-32 Kartik Anand, Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28