Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff discussion paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
October 30, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – October 2019 The Bank projects that Canadian economy will grow by 1.5 percent this year, 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
July 12, 2017 Monetary Policy Report – July 2017 Growth in the Canadian economy is projected to reach 2.8 per cent this year before slowing to 2.0 per cent next year and 1.6 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 12, 2017 Historical chartered bank assets: Month-end (formerly C3) Inactive: Starting with reference month October 2020, the Bank of Canada no longer updates this table.
Inequality in Parental Transfers and Optimal Need-Based Financial Aid Staff working paper 2019-7 Youngmin Park This paper studies optimal need-based financial aid when parental transfers—unobserved by policymakers—vary across and within families of similar means. Using data on U.S. college students, I document substantial inequality in parental transfers, especially among wealthier families. I then analyze how this affects aid design aimed at reducing inefficiencies from borrowing constraints and the aid itself. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D6, D61, D64, D8, D82, I, I2, I22, J, J2, J24 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
May 6, 2019 Risk Sharing, Flexibility and the Future of Mortgages Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Credit Union Association and Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba Governor Poloz talks about Canada’s housing market and how the mortgage market could evolve to give Canadians more choice, make the economy more flexible and lower the level of financial system risk. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability
Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model Technical report No. 122 Gabriel Bruneau, Thibaut Duprey, Ruben Hipp We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, G, G1, G17, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models
February 21, 2013 Conference Summary: Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2012-2013 Jason Allen, James Chapman, Ian Christensen The Bank of Canada’s annual economic conference, held in October 2012, brought together experts from across Canada and around the world to discuss key issues concerning financial intermediation and vulnerabilities. The conference covered such topics as household finances and their relationship to financial stability, as well as bank regulation, securitization and shadow banking. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G2
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff analytical note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Optimal Estimation of Multi-Country Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models Using Linear Regressions Staff working paper 2017-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large—a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their tractability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models