Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence Staff Working Paper 2002-31 Céline Gauthier, David Tessier In this paper, we study the impact of supply shocks on the Canadian real exchange rate. We specify a structural vector-error-correction model that links the real exchange rate to different fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31
Inflation Expectations and Learning about Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2002-30 David Andolfatto, Scott Hendry, Kevin Moran Various measures indicate that inflation expectations evolve sluggishly relative to actual inflation. In addition, they often fail conventional tests of unbiasedness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58
Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-29 David Bolder, Scott Gusba This paper continues the work started by Bolder and Stréliski (1999) and considers two alternative classes of models for extracting zero-coupon and forward rates from a set of observed Government of Canada bond and treasury-bill prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
Filtering for Current Analysis Staff Working Paper 2002-28 Simon van Norden This paper shows how existing band-pass filtering techniques and their extension can be applied to the common current-analysis problem of estimating current trends or cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1
Habit Formation and the Persistence of Monetary Shocks Staff Working Paper 2002-27 Hafedh Bouakez, Emanuela Cardia, Francisco Ruge-Murcia This paper studies the persistent effects of monetary shocks on output. Previous empirical literature documents this persistence, but standard general-equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5
Nominal Rigidity, Desired Markup Variations, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence Staff Working Paper 2002-26 Hafedh Bouakez This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general-equilibrium sticky-price model that accounts for real exchange rate persistence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41
Nominal Rigidities and Monetary Policy in Canada Since 1981 Staff Working Paper 2002-25 Ali Dib This paper develops and estimates a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium model with price and wage stickiness to analyze monetary policy in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Non-Technical Survey Staff Working Paper 2002-24 Veronika Dolar, Césaire Meh There is a large body of literature that studies the relationship between financial structure (that is, the degree to which the financial system is either market- or intermediary-based) and long-run economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): F, F3, F36, G, G0, G00, G1, G14, G2, G21, K, K2, K22, O, O1, O16
How to Improve Inflation Targeting at the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-23 Nicholas Rowe This paper shows that if the Bank of Canada is optimally adjusting its monetary policy instrument in response to inflation indicators to target 2 per cent inflation at a two-year horizon, then deviations of inflation from 2 per cent represent the Bank's forecast errors, and should be uncorrelated with its information set, which includes two-year lagged values of the instrument and the indicators. Positive or negative correlations are evidence of systematic errors in monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States Staff Working Paper 2002-22 Brigitte Desroches, Marc-André Gosselin This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E27