CoMargin Staff Working Paper 2013-47 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Jeffrey H. Harris, Christophe Hurlin, Christophe Pérignon We present CoMargin, a new methodology to estimate collateral requirements for central counterparties (CCPs) in derivatives markets. CoMargin depends on both the tail risk of a given market participant and its interdependence with other participants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13
Heterogeneous Returns to U.S. College Selectivity and the Value of Graduate Degree Attainment Staff Working Paper 2013-46 Mai Seki Existing studies on the returns to college selectivity have mixed results, mainly due to the difficulty of controlling for selection into more-selective colleges based on unobserved ability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C30, I, I2, I21
Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Bank Performance and Regulatory Reform Staff Discussion Paper 2013-4 Neville Arjani, Graydon Paulin The financial systems of some countries fared materially better than others during the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
Expansion of Higher Education, Employment and Wages: Evidence from the Russian Transition Staff Working Paper 2013-45 Natalia Kyui This paper analyzes the effects of an educational system expansion on labour market outcomes, drawing upon a 15-year natural experiment in the Russian Federation. Regional increases in student intake capacities in Russian universities, a result of educational reforms, provide a plausibly exogenous variation in access to higher education. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): I, I2, I20, J, J2, J24
November 30, 2013 Research Update - November 2013 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2013-44 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a standard New Keynesian business-cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of inflation and the output gap by at least two-thirds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52
Perceived Inflation Persistence Staff Working Paper 2013-43 Monica Jain The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has had vast influence on research related to better understanding expectation formation and the behaviour of macroeconomic agents. Inflation expectations, in particular, have received a great deal of attention, since they play a crucial role in determining real interest rates, the expectations-augmented Phillips curve and monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
High-Frequency Real Economic Activity Indicator for Canada Staff Working Paper 2013-42 Gitanjali Kumar I construct a weekly measure of real economic activity in Canada. Based on the work of Aruoba et al. (2009), the indicator is extracted as an unobserved component underlying the co-movement of four monthly observed real macroeconomic variables - employment, manufacturing sales, retail sales and GDP. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E3, E32
Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt Staff Discussion Paper 2013-3 Martin Brooke, Rhys R. Mendes, Alex Pienkowski, Eric Santor The Latin American debt crises in the 1980s and the Asian crisis in the late 1990s both provided impetus for reforming the framework for restructuring sovereign debt. In the late 1980s, the Brady plan established the importance of substantive debt relief in addressing some crises. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34
Central Bank Communications Before, During and After the Crisis: From Open-Market Operations to Open-Mouth Policy Staff Working Paper 2013-41 Ianthi Vayid The days when secrecy and opacity were the bywords of central banking are gone. The advent of inflation targeting in the early 1990s acted as the catalyst for enhanced transparency and communications in the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58