Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
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result(s)
Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB
Staff Working Paper 2020-31
Robert Amano,
Stefano Gnocchi,
Sylvain Leduc,
Joel Wagner
The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52
Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility
Staff Working Paper 2019-9
Cars Hommes,
Joep Lustenhouwer
Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credibility,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C62,
E,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52
Limited Commitment, Endogenous Credibility and the Challenges of Price-level Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2018-61
Gino Cateau,
Malik Shukayev
This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank has the discretion to adjust policy whenever the costs of honoring its past commitments become high. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy in a New Keynesian model by committing to a price-level target path.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?
Staff Working Paper 2018-17
José Dorich,
Nicholas Labelle,
Vadym Lepetyuk,
Rhys R. Mendes
Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E37,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52
Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate?
Staff Working Paper 2017-60
Bruno Feunou,
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Jianjian Jin
Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43
Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?
Staff Working Paper 2014-52
Michael Ehrmann
Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58
Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy
Staff Working Paper 2012-41
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions and they do not distinguish between dates with and without scheduled announcements.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E44,
E47,
G,
G1,
G12,
G13
Commodities and Monetary Policy: Implications for Inflation and Price Level Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2012-16
Donald Coletti,
René Lalonde,
Paul Masson,
Dirk Muir,
Stephen Snudden
We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important consequences for global commodity prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E31,
E37,
E5,
E52,
F,
F4,
F41,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence
Staff Working Paper 2011-18
Robert Amano,
Jim Engle-Warnick,
Malik Shukayev
In this paper, we use an economics decision-making experiment to test a key assumption underpinning the efficacy of price-level targeting relative to inflation targeting for business cycle stabilization and mitigating the effects of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52