May 21, 2002
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766
result(s)
May 19, 2002
Private Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies
This article explores the evolution of capital flows to emerging markets over the last 30 years with emphasis on the past decade. Capital markets in emerging-market economies have evolved substantially over the period, becoming increasingly deep and resilient. The author looks at how capital flows to these countries have changed in terms of magnitude, geographical distribution, the financial instruments used, and the country of origin. He also examines how changes in the investor base have affected these flows and reviews the factors underlying the growth of private capital flows in the 1990s.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Development economics
May 18, 2002
Foreign Takeovers and the Canadian Dollar: Evidence and Implications
Since 1995, acquisitions of foreign firms by Canadian residents and acquisitions of Canadian firms by foreign residents have increased. Through most of this period, the dollar has depreciated, but the cumulative net balance of foreign direct investment acquisition flows has remained close to zero. The recent upward trend in bilateral acquisition flows is part of the globalization process as firms consolidate and rationalize their operations, and is not related to the value of the Canadian dollar. Standard models of international asset pricing imply that there should not be a relationship between the Canadian exchange rate and foreign takeovers of Canadian firms because an exchange rate movement does not give foreign buyers a systematic advantage over domestic buyers. Purchases of domestic firms by foreign residents are likely to be welfare-improving. Transactions between foreign and domestic residents are voluntary, and they imply that the foreign buyers expect to obtain higher profits from the firms' assets.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
Towards a More Complete Debt Strategy Simulation Framework
Staff Working Paper 2002-13
David Bolder
An effective technique governments use to evaluate the desirability of different financing strategies involves stochastic simulation. This approach requires the postulation of the future dynamics of key macroeconomic variables and the use of those variables in the construction of a debt charge distribution for each individual financing strategy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C5,
G,
G0
La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada
Staff Working Paper 2002-10
Jean-Philippe Cayen,
Simon van Norden
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32
Restructuring in the Canadian Economy: A Survey of Firms
Staff Working Paper 2002-8
Carolyn Kwan
The regional offices of the Bank conducted a survey of 140 Canadian companies (representing all non-government sectors of the economy) to study the effects of restructuring (defined as a major change in the way firms do business).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Productivity,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
O,
O5,
O51
Currency Fluctuations, Liability Dollarization, and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets
Staff Working Paper 2002-6
Patrick Osakwe
Traditional models of exchange rate regimes ignore the destabilizing effects of sharp and unanticipated exchange rate movements.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41
Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada?
Staff Working Paper 2002-4
Jean Farès
The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
J,
J3,
J31
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism at the Sectoral Level
Staff Working Paper 2001-27
Jean Farès,
Gabriel Srour
This paper relies on simple vector autoregressions to investigate the monetary transmission mechanism in broad sectors of the Canadian economy. Two types of disaggregation are considered: one at the level of final expenditures, and one at the level of production.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52
November 18, 2001
A New Measure of Core Inflation
While the Bank of Canada's inflation-control target is specified in terms of the rate of increase in the total consumer price index, the Bank uses a measure of trend or "core" inflation as a short-term guide for its monetary policy actions. When the inflation targets were renewed in May 2001, the Bank announced that it was adopting a new measure of core inflation. This measure excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI and adjusts the remaining components for the effect of changes in indirect taxes. In this article, the author discusses the definition of the new measure of core inflation and describes some of its advantages relative to the previous measure. He notes that the new measure has a firmer statistical basis, has a better correspondence with economic theory, and does a better job of predicting future changes in overall inflation. While the new measure has these advantages, the Bank will continue to monitor a broad range of indicators when assessing the likely future path for inflation.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation targets