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1776 result(s)

Forecasting the Price of Oil

Staff Working Paper 2011-15 Ron Alquist, Lutz Kilian, Robert Vigfusson
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications?

Real-Financial Linkages in the Canadian Economy: An Input-Output Approach

Staff Working Paper 2011-14 Danny Leung, Oana Secrieru
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we provide a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM), which incorporates the income and financial flows into the standard input-output matrix, for the Canadian economy for 2004.

Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002).

Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy

Staff Working Paper 2011-10 Huixin Bi
We develop a closed economy model to study the interactions among sovereign risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy. The stochastic fiscal limits, which measure the ability and willingness of the government to service its debt, arise endogenously from a dynamic Laffer curve.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H3, H30, H6, H60

Inventories, Markups and Real Rigidities in Sticky Price Models of the Canadian Economy

Staff Working Paper 2011-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan
Recent New Keynesian models of macroeconomy view nominal cost rigidities, rather than nominal price rigidities, as the key feature that accounts for the observed persistence in output and inflation. Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2010a,b) reassess these conclusions by combining a theory based on nominal rigidities and storable goods with direct evidence on inventories for the U.S.

Belief Dispersion and Order Submission Strategies in the Foreign Exchange Market

Staff Working Paper 2011-8 Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp
This paper empirically examines how dispersions across investors beliefs influence traders order submission decisions in the foreign exchange market. Previous research has found that dispersion in traders beliefs regarding future macroeconomic announcements has a significant impact on both price dynamics and trading volume before the announcements in the foreign exchange and other financial markets.
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