Mikael Khan - Latest

• Markups and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-8 Olga Bilyk, Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan

  We find that prices and costs for consumer-oriented firms moved roughly one-for-one during the COVID-19 pandemic. This means firms fully passed rising costs through to the prices they charged. However, our results are suggestive, given data limitations and the uncertainty associated with estimating markups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D2, D4, E, E2, E3, L, L1

• Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-17 Mikael Khan, Elyse Sullivan

  We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, E, E3, E31

• Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-1 Mikael Khan, Yang Xu

  We introduce a novel approach to categorize mortgaged homebuyers into first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors. We show how these groups contribute to activity in Canadian housing markets, and we analyze the differences in their demographic and financial characteristics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31

• Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan

  We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, R, R2, R21, R3, R31

• COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-8 Timothy Grieder, Mikael Khan, Juan Ortega, Callie Symmers

  Despite COVID-19 challenges, bold policy measures in Canada have helped businesses manage cash flow pressures and kept insolvency filings low. But the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, and the financial health of some firms may further deteriorate over the next year.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G32, G33, G38

• Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-4 Mikael Khan, Olga Bilyk, Matthew Ackman

  Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D8, D84, E, E5, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2, R21

• Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée

  COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, D14, E, E2, E24, E27, E6, E62, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2

• Home Equity Extraction and Household Spending in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-27 Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Monica Mow, Brian Peterson

  We use rich microdata to measure home equity extraction in Canada and track its evolution over time. We find home equity extraction has been rising in recent years and has likely contributed materially to dynamics in household spending.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G20

• The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-24 Marc-André Gosselin, Mikael Khan, Matthieu Verstraete

  We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, R, R2, R21

• Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-12 Mikael Khan, Taylor Webley

  We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, R, R2, R21