Fares Bounajm - Latest

• Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-23 Fares Bounajm, Tessa Devakos, Gabriela Galassi

  When it comes to understanding the influence of labour costs on inflation, average wage growth is a misleading indicator because it is affected by composition effects. We propose an alternative measure that corrects for these effects by using microdata from the Labour Force Survey. Our new measure has many desirable properties, including reduced volatility and a better relationship with labour market fundamentals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, J, J2, J21, J3, J30, J31, J8, J82

• Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang

  We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6

• Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter

  We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E4, E43, E47, G, G5, G51

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk

  This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4