R - Urbanuralegionaleal Estate, and Transportation Economics
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November 4, 2014
Housing Finance in Canada: Looking Back to Move Forward
The Canadian system of housing finance proved to be resilient and efficient during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. The system’s effectiveness is the result of a rigorous prudential regulatory and supervisory regime coupled with targeted government guarantees of mortgage insurance and securitization products. -
Housing and Tax Policy
In this paper, we investigate the effects of housing-related tax policy measures on macroeconomic aggregates using a dynamic general-equilibrium model. -
Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply
We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States. -
May 16, 2013
Explaining Canada’s Regional Migration Patterns
Understanding the factors that determine the migration of labour between regions is crucial for assessing the economy’s response to macroeconomic shocks and identifying policies that will encourage an efficient reallocation of labour. By examining the determinants of migration within Canada from 1991 to 2006, this article provides evidence that regional differences in employment rates and household incomes tend to increase labour migration, and that provincial borders and language differences are barriers to migration. -
An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt
This paper examines the contributions of population aging, mortgage innovation and historically low interest rates to the sharp rise in U.S. house prices and mortgage debt between 1994 and 2005. -
What Drags and Drives Mobility: Explaining Canada’s Aggregate Migration Patterns
Using census data at the economic region level from 1991 to 2006 and a gravity model framework, this paper examines the factors that influence migration within Canada. -
House Price Dynamics: Fundamentals and Expectations
We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. -
February 23, 2012
Medium-Term Fluctuations in Canadian House Prices
This article draws on theory and empirical evidence to examine a number of factors behind movements in Canadian house prices. It begins with an overview of the movements in house prices in Canada, using regional data to highlight factors that influence prices over the long run. It then turns to the central theme, that there are medium-run movements in prices not accounted for by long-run factors. Drawing on recent Bank of Canada research, the article discusses several factors behind these medium-run movements, including interest rates, expected price appreciation and market liquidity. The article concludes by identifying areas for future research that would further our understanding of fluctuations in house prices. -
Fooled by Search: Housing Prices, Turnover and Bubbles
his paper develops and estimates a model to explain the behaviour of house prices in the United States. The main finding is that over 70% of the increase in house prices relative to trend during the increase of house prices in the United States from 1995 to 2006 can be explained by a pricing mechanism where market participants are ‘Fooled by Search.’