G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

• A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes

  Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts

  Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes).

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19

• Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao

  We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2014-37 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, F, F3, F36, F37, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events

  Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2013-12 Jianjian Jin

  This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G17

• The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-3 David Bolder, Simon Deeley

  As part of managing a debt portfolio, debt managers face the challenging task of choosing a strategy that minimizes the cost of debt, subject to limitations on risk. The Bank of Canada provides debt-management analysis and advice to the Government of Canada to assist in this task, with the Canadian debt-strategy model being developed to help in this regard.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Debt Management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal Policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, G, G1, G11, G17, H, H6, H63