D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending
This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China. -
2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash Use Over 13 Years
We present results from the 2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares based on a three-day shopping diary. We also assess various factors associated with long-term trends in cash use. -
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets. -
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation. -
Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence
We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price. -
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media. -
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal
We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters. -
Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory
We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare. -
Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context
This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations.