D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: The Resilience of Cash
We present key results from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey. Results show that measures of cash management and use have remained stable since 2020, and that Canadians increased their adoption of payment alternatives such as mobile apps in 2023. -
The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market
We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status. -
Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm
We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking. -
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems
Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems. -
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. -
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending
This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China. -
2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: Cash Use Over 13 Years
We present results from the 2022 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares based on a three-day shopping diary. We also assess various factors associated with long-term trends in cash use. -
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets. -
Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.