C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General

• Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models

  Staff Working Paper 2009-31 Zhongfang He, John M. Maheu

  A sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C2, C22, C5, C53

• Which Bank is the "Central" Bank? An Application of Markov Theory to the Canadian Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Working Paper 2008-42 Morten Bech, James Chapman, Rodney J. Garratt

  We use a method similar to Google's PageRank procedure to rank banks in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System (LVTS). Along the way we obtain estimates of the payment processing speeds for the individual banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E5, E50, G, G2, G20

• Combining Canadian Interest-Rate Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2008-34 David Bolder, Yuliya Romanyuk

  Model risk is a constant danger for financial economists using interest-rate forecasts for the purposes of monetary policy analysis, portfolio allocations, or risk-management decisions. Use of multiple models does not necessarily solve the problem as it greatly increases the work required and still leaves the question "which model forecast should one use?"

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E4, E43, E47

• Multilateral Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Three Commodity Currencies

  Staff Working Paper 2007-41 Jeannine Bailliu, Ali Dib, Takashi Kano, Lawrence L. Schembri

  In this paper, we empirically investigate whether multilateral adjustment to large U.S. external imbalances can help explain movements in the bilateral exchange rates of three commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand (ACNZ) dollars.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32