Technical Reports

• MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy

  Technical Report No. 96 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde

  The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Essays on Financial Stability

  Technical Report No. 95 John Chant, Alexandra Lai, Mark Illing, Fred Daniel

  The four essays published here provide a useful overview for anyone interested in understanding the issues and policy environment surrounding financial system stability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G2, G28

• A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy

  Technical Report No. 94 Denise Côté, John Kuszczak, Jean-Paul Lam, Ying Liu, Pierre St-Amant

  In this report, the authors examine and compare twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy with respect to their paradigm, structure, and dynamic properties. These open-economy models can be grouped into two economic paradigms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E5, E52, E58

• Money in the Bank (of Canada)

  Technical Report No. 93 David Longworth

  With the demise of monetary targeting over the past 20 years in many major countries, the question has arisen as to whether central banks should look at money at all when formulating and conducting monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E51, E52

• The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy

  Technical Report No. 92 Denise Côté, John Kuszczak, Jean-Paul Lam, Ying Liu, Pierre St-Amant

  In this report, we evaluate several simple monetary policy rules in twelve private and public sector models of the Canadian economy. Our results indicate that none of the simple policy rules we examined is robust to model uncertainty, in that no single rule performs well in all models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

• The Financial Services Sector: An Update on Recent Developments

  Technical Report No. 91 Charles Freedman, Clyde Goodlet

  The Canadian financial industry continues to experience significant changes. This report provides an update on recent developments and re-examines a number of issues facing financial service providers that were identified in Technical Report No. 82.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2

• Dollarization in Canada: The Buck Stops There

  Technical Report No. 90 John Murray, James Powell

  The sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the successful launch of the euro have spawned an animated debate in Canada concerning the potential benefits of formally adopting the U.S. dollar as our national currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F3, F33, F36

• Core Inflation

  Technical Report No. 89 Seamus Hogan, Marianne Johnson, Thérèse Laflèche

  The Bank of Canada uses core CPI inflation, the year-over-year rate of change of the consumer price index excluding food, energy, and the effects of changes in indirect taxes, as the operational guide for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• International Financial Crises and Flexible Exchange Rates: Some Policy Lessons from Canada

  Technical Report No. 88 John Murray, Mark Zelmer, Zahir Antia

  This paper examines the behaviour of the Canadian dollar from 1997 to 1999 to see if there is any evidence of excess volatility or significant overshooting. A small econometric model of the exchange rate, based on market fundamentals, is presented and used to make tentative judgments about the extent to which the currency might have been systematically over- or undervalued.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

• The Regulation of Central Securities Depositories and the Linkages between CSDs and Large-Value Payment Systems

  Technical Report No. 87 Charles Freedman

  This paper first describes the Bank of Canada's approach to the design of large-value clearing and settlement systems. It then examines the way the Bank has operated under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act, passed by Parliament in July 1996.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, G20