Recent economic and financial developments

• Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-32 Tony Chernis, Corinne Luu

  Because the Bank of Canada has started withdrawing monetary stimulus, monitoring the transmission of these changes to monetary policy will be important. Subcomponents of consumption and housing will likely respond differently to a monetary policy tightening, both in terms of the aggregate effect and timing.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Housing, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E47, E5, E52

• September 6, 2018 An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan

  Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-28 José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Jonathan Swarbrick

  We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout

  This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

• June 27, 2018 Let Me Be Clear: From Transparency to Trust and Understanding

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia

  Governor Poloz talks about how the Bank is improving communications with the public and helping financial markets understand its monetary policy approach.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Credibility, Financial markets, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• June 7, 2018 The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey

  Financial System Review - June 2018 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Ian Christensen, Scott Kinnear, Maxime Leboeuf

  This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review Article Topic(s): Financial Institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G28, G3, G32

• Interest Rate and Renewal Risk for Mortgages

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-18 Olga Bilyk, Brian Peterson, Cameron MacDonald

  In this note, we explore two types of risk faced by holders of mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) in the context of rising interest rates: interest rate risk and renewal risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial Institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21, G28

• Measuring Vulnerabilities in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector Using Industry- and Firm-Level Data

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-17 Timothy Grieder, Michal Lipsitz

  Aggregate non-financial corporate debt-to-GDP has been growing rapidly in recent years and is at an all-time high. This growth began in 2011 and accelerated as the oil price shock affected the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32

• May 31, 2018 A Progress Report on the Economy

  Remarks Sylvain Leduc Association des économistes québécois and CFA Québec Québec, Québec

  Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their May 30 decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy