Recent economic and financial developments

• Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-12 Mikael Khan, Taylor Webley

  We use a recently developed model and loan-level micro data to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, R, R2, R21
• March 7, 2019

  Economic Progress Report: Sensible Shifts in Household Spending

  Remarks Lynn Patterson Hamilton Chamber of Commerce Hamilton, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses updates on the economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments
• March 7, 2019

  Spending Shifts and Consumer Caution

  Lynn Patterson Hamilton Chamber of Commerce Hamilton, Ontario

  Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates unchanged, Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discussed the key points Governing Council considered in their decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments

• The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-6 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu

  Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E26, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J4
• February 21, 2019

  Toward 2021: The Power—and Limitations—of Policy

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec

  Governor Poloz explains that monetary policy is a powerful tool to promote economic welfare, but it also has some important limits.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-4 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu

  The literature highlights that labour market churn, including job-to-job transitions, is a key element of wage growth. Using microdata from the Labour Force Survey, we compute measures of labour market churn and compare these with pre-crisis averages to assess implications for wage growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J6, J63

• Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic

  Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial Institutions, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44
• December 6, 2018

  Year-End Economic Progress Report: Financial Vulnerabilities in Focus

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz CFA Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Poloz talks about how household debt levels and housing markets played a role in the latest interest-rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments

• The Trade War in Numbers

  Staff Working Paper 2018-57 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry

  We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to isolate and quantify the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes on the United States and the global economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68

• The Impact of Recent Policy Changes on the Canadian Mortgage Market

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-35 Olga Bilyk, Maria teNyenhuis

  Recent policy changes are having a clear impact on the mortgage market. The number of new, highly indebted borrowers has fallen, and overall mortgage activity has slowed significantly.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial Institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, G, G2, G21, G28