Recent economic and financial developments

• The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau

  This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68
• May 30, 2019

  Economic Progress Report: Investing in Growth

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
• May 30, 2019

  Economic progress depends on business investment

  Carolyn A. Wilkins Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about the importance of business investment to the Canadian economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary Policy, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments

• Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-15 Timothy Grieder, Claire Schaffter

  In this note, we use firm-level data from Statistics Canada’s Quarterly Survey of Financial Statements to construct two sets of aggregate vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G3, G32

• Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-14 Leila Al-Mqbali, Olga Bilyk, Stefan Caputo, James Younker

  Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial Institutions, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, G, G2, G21, G28
• May 6, 2019

  Risk Sharing, Flexibility and the Future of Mortgages

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Credit Union Association and Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba

  Governor Poloz talks about Canada’s housing market and how the mortgage market could evolve to give Canadians more choice, make the economy more flexible and lower the level of financial system risk.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Financial services, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade Integration
• May 1, 2019

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening Statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Transmission of monetary policy
• April 30, 2019

  Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

  Opening Statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Transmission of monetary policy

• Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-12 Mikael Khan, Taylor Webley

  We use a recently developed model and loan-level micro data to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, R, R2, R21
• March 7, 2019

  Economic Progress Report: Sensible Shifts in Household Spending

  Remarks Lynn Patterson Hamilton Chamber of Commerce Hamilton, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses updates on the economy and reviews the latest interest rate decision.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments