Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2025-23 William Du, Adrian Monninger, Xincheng Qiu, Tao Wang Aggregate consumption impacts of heightened job risks during recessions can arise either from ex-ante responses to the fear of unemployment or from ex-post consumption declines due to realized income losses. We use survey-based perceptions of job risk and actual labor market transitions to quantify the relative contributions of these two channels. We further show that belief stickiness limits the extent of ex-ante insurance against job risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E2, E21, E7, E71, G, G5, G51
August 26, 2025 Inflation targeting: A framework for today and tomorrow Speech summary Tiff Macklem Bank of Mexico 100ᵗʰ Anniversary Seminar Mexico City, Mexico Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation targeting became a leading strategy among central banks for maintaining price stability. He also talks about structural change ahead, shifts in global trade and ensuring monetary policy is fit for the future. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Price stability
August 26, 2025 Flexible inflation targeting in a shock-prone world Remarks Tiff Macklem Bank of Mexico 100ᵗʰ Anniversary Seminar Mexico City, Mexico Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation targeting became a leading strategy for maintaining price stability and how the Bank of Canada is ensuring its monetary policy framework is fit for future challenges. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Price stability
June 18, 2025 The impact of US trade policy on jobs and inflation in Canada Remarks Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the trade conflict with the United States has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is critical for jobs and growth, and important for prices and inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
June 18, 2025 Trade, jobs and inflation Speech summary Tiff Macklem St. John’s Board of Trade St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the trade conflict with the United States and how it is has affected the Canadian economy. He explains that restoring open trade is important for jobs, growth and price stability in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Expectations, Inflation and prices, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
June 5, 2025 Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy Speech summary Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how we make better decisions by looking at a variety of data and talking with Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
June 5, 2025 Talking to Canadians: How real-world insights shape monetary policy Remarks Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how the Bank of Canada is using non-traditional data to better inform its monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
March 20, 2025 Navigating tariff uncertainty Remarks Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the US trade conflict and uncertainty is hurting business and consumer confidence. He also outlines what the Bank is doing to ensure the trade conflict doesn’t cause widespread or persistent inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
March 20, 2025 Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the Canadian economy Speech summary Tiff Macklem Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how uncertainty about the trade war with the United States has shaken businesses and consumer confidence. He also reiterates that the Bank of Canada must ensure that high prices from tariffs do not lead to ongoing inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments, Trade integration
February 21, 2025 Trade conflict: What can the Bank of Canada do? Speech summary Tiff Macklem Mississauga Board of Trade-Oakville Chamber of Commerce Mississauga, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how a trade conflict would affect the Canadian economy and monetary policy. He also outlines what the Bank of Canada is focusing on as it renews its monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration