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304 Results

The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil

How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought.
June 24, 2020

Bank of Canada contributes to new publications by the Network for Greening the Financial System

As a member of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the Bank of Canada contributed to three publications that aim to improve global understanding of the impact of climate change on the financial system and world economy.

Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.

Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston
We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.
February 5, 2020

Securing prosperity is up to all of us

Speech summary Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins explains that Canada is well-positioned to secure prosperity and avoid a long period of slow growth if we take the right steps.
February 5, 2020

Our Economic Destiny: Written in R-stars?

Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Economic Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins talks about how to navigate slow growth and discusses the types of policies that would help secure long-term prosperity.