An Overview of the Indigenous Economy in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-25 Alex Chernoff, Calista Cheung Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Development economics, Financial services, Labour markets, Monetary policy transmission, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, E02, N, N4, N41, N42, O, O4, O43, P, P4, P48
Digitalization: Definition and Measurement Staff Discussion Paper 2023-20 Guyllaume Faucher, Stephanie Houle This paper provides an overview of digitalization and its economic implications. We assess the scope of digitalization in Canada as well as the challenges related to its measurement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, O, O3, O33, O5, O51
The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff Analytical Note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stephanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51
Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2020-25 Dany Brouillette, Julien Champagne, Julien McDonald-Guimond After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2019-10 Dany Brouillette, Julien Champagne, Carol Khoury, Natalia Kyui, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say? Staff Analytical Note 2019-5 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52
GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved? Staff Analytical Note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01
An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework Staff Discussion Paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E0, E5
The Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment Technical Report No. 113 Cameron MacDonald, Virginie Traclet Risk assessment models are an important component of the Bank’s analytical tool kit for assessing the resilience of the financial system. We describe the Framework for Risk Identification and Assessment (FRIDA), a suite of models developed at the Bank of Canada to quantify the impact of financial stability risks to the broader economy and a range of financial system participants (households, businesses and banks). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C3, C5, C6, C7, D, D1, E, E0, E00, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E47, G, G0, G2, G21