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16 Results

Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

Staff Analytical Note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy
In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

Bootstrapping Mean Squared Errors of Robust Small-Area Estimators: Application to the Method-of-Payments Data

Staff Working Paper 2018-28 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo, Pierre Nguimkeu
This paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean squared errors of robust small-area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations.

New Housing Registrations as a Leading Indicator of the BC Economy

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-3 Calista Cheung, Dmitry Granovsky
Housing starts and building permits data are commonly used as leading indicators of economic activity. In British Columbia, all new homes must be registered with the Homeowner Protection Office, a branch of BC Housing, before the issuance of building permits and the start of construction.

Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Staff Working Paper 2015-47 Bruno Albuquerque, Georgi Krustev
Using a novel dataset for the US states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of US consumption since 2007, in the aftermath of the housing bubble.

Méthodologie de construction de séries de taux de défaut pour l’industrie canadienne

Staff Discussion Paper 2013-2 Ramdane Djoudad, Étienne Bordeleau
Default rates are series commonly used in stress testing. In Canada, as in many other countries, there are no historical series available for sectoral default rates on bank loans to firms.

Semi-Structural Models for Inflation Forecasting

Staff Working Paper 2010-34 Maral Kichian, Rumler Fabio, Paul Corrigan
We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies.

Structural Inflation Models with Real Wage Rigidities: The Case of Canada

Staff Working Paper 2009-21 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian
Real wage rigidities have recently been proposed as a way of building intrinsic persistence in inflation within the context of New Keynesian Phillips Curves. Using two recent illustrative structural models, we evaluate empirically the importance of real wage rigidities in the data and the extent to which such models provide useful information regarding price stickiness.

Assessing Indexation-Based Calvo Inflation Models

Staff Working Paper 2009-7 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian
Using identification-robust methods, the authors estimate and evaluate for Canada and the United States various classes of inflation equations based on generalized structural Calvo-type models. The models allow for different forms of frictions and vary in their assumptions regarding the type of price indexation adopted by firms.