Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff working paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
January 5, 2020 Monetary Policy Frameworks in a World of Low Interest Rates Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins American Economic Association San Diego, California Archived panel discussion hosted by the Bank for International Settlements at the American Economic Association’s 2020 Annual Meeting of Allied Social Science Associations. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
December 12, 2019 The Bank of Canada’s plans for 2020 Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario In his traditional year-end speech, Governor Stephen S. Poloz described some of the long-term forces affecting the global and Canadian economies that will shape the Bank’s work in 2020. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Productivity Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Fintech, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
December 12, 2019 Big Issues Ahead: The Bank’s 2020 Vision Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how long-term global economic forces will drive the Bank of Canada’s work agenda in 2020 and beyond. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Productivity Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
December 5, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Charting Our Own Course Remarks Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the different monetary policy paths taken by Canada and the United States over the last decade and reviews the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
December 5, 2019 Canadian economy resilient despite global uncertainty Speech summary Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade and Ottawa Business Journal Ottawa, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explained that Canada’s economy remains resilient. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution Staff discussion paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.” Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
September 5, 2019 Economic Progress Report: Inflation in Canada—Well Behaved and Well Controlled Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Halifax Regional Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and the behaviour of inflation in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
September 5, 2019 Canadian economy resilient even as global outlook worsens Speech summary Lawrence L. Schembri Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discussed the key points Governing Council considered in their decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update Staff discussion paper 2019-9 Helen Lao, Ceciline Steyn We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission