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105 Results

How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.
May 14, 2015

The Slowdown in Global Trade

Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.

Import Price Dynamics in Major Advanced Economies and Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Staff Working Paper 2008-39 Stephane Dees, Matthias Burgert, Nicolas Parent
This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F3, F4, F41

Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns

Staff Working Paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba
Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates.

Identifying the Degree of Collusion Under Proportional Reduction

Staff Working Paper 2017-51 Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Naoki Wakamori
Proportional reduction is a common cartel practice in which cartel members reduce their output proportionately. We develop a method to quantify this reduction relative to a benchmark market equilibrium scenario and relate the reduction to the traditional conduct parameter.

Optimal Taxation in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection

Staff Working Paper 2020-11 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini
What is the optimal tax schedule in over-the-counter markets, e.g., those for corporate bonds? I find that an optimal tax schedule is often non-monotonic. For example, trading of some high-price assets should be subsidized, and trading of some low-price assets should be taxed.
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