Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads? Staff Working Paper 2008-25 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F34, G, G1, G12, G15
Exchange Rate Regimes, Globalisation, and the Cost of Capital in Emerging Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-29 Antonio Diez de los Rios This paper presents a multifactor asset pricing model for currency, bond, and stock returns for ten emerging markets to investigate the effect of the exchange rate regime on the cost of capital and the integration of emerging financial markets. Since there is evidence that a fixed exchange rate regime reduces the currency risk premia demanded by foreign investors, the tentative conclusion is that a fixed exchange rate regime system can help reduce the cost of capital in emerging markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F33, G, G1, G15
Institutional Quality, Trade, and the Changing Distribution of World Income Staff Working Paper 2006-19 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F15, O, O1, O11, P, P4, P48
The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2006-1 Robert Lavigne The author empirically assesses the effects of institutional and political factors on the need and willingness of governments to make large fiscal adjustments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Econometric and statistical methods, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, O, O1, O17, O19
April 25, 2005 Understanding China's Long-Run Growth Process and Its Implications for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Michael Francis, François Painchaud, Sylvie Morin In the past 25 years, China has introduced numerous reforms, gradually moving from a centrally planned economy towards a socialist market economy capable of robust and sustainable economic growth. China's increasing integration into the global economy, which has been fuelled by this recent and rapid economic growth, has already begun to affect the economies of other countries and to present challenges for policy-makers, both in China and abroad. In addition to examining the determinants of China's past and current growth, the authors consider factors that are likely to support continued growth in the future and assess the implications for both the world and the Canadian economies. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, International topics
November 21, 2004 Summary of the G-20 Workshop on Developing Strong Domestic Financial Markets, 26-27 April 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Joerg Stephan, James Powell, Robert Lafrance, James Haley G-20 representatives, academics, market participants, and members of international financial institutions were brought together in Ottawa to explore the connection between robust financial markets and economic growth and development, share experiences, and to develop policy recommendations, where possible. Participants identified several areas they deemed critical for fostering strong domestic financial markets and reducing external vulnerability: sound macroeconomics policies, strengthened financial infrastructures and banking systems, and exchange rate flexibility for countries with widely open capital accounts. Papers presented in the six sessions and keynote address highlighted a number of issues, including currency mismatches, the sequence of financial liberalization and supervisory reforms, the development of local financial markets, infrastructure building and governance, and appropriate incentives. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Financial institutions, International topics
Commodity-Linked Bonds: A Potential Means for Less-Developed Countries to Raise Foreign Capital Staff Working Paper 2004-20 Joseph Atta-Mensah The author suggests that commodity-linked bonds could provide a potential means for less-developed countries (LDCs) to raise money on the international capital markets, rather than through standard forms of financing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F34, F4, F49, G, G1, G11, G13, O, O1, O16
Financial Constraints and Investment: Assessing the Impact of a World Bank Loan Program on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Sri Lanka Staff Working Paper 2003-37 Varouj Aivazian, Dipak Mazumdar, Eric Santor The authors examine the investment behaviour of a sample of small, credit-constrained firms in Sri Lanka. Using a unique panel-data set, they analyze and compare the activities of two groups of small firms distinguished by their different access to financing; one group consists of firms with heavily subsidized loans from the World Bank, and the other consists of firms without such subsidies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): G, G0, G00, O, O1, O16
Do Peer Group Members Outperform Individual Borrowers? A Test of Peer Group Lending Using Canadian Micro-Credit Data Staff Working Paper 2003-33 Rafael Gomez, Eric Santor Microfinance institutions now serve over 10 million poor households in the developing and developed world, and much of their success has been attributed to their innovative use of peer group lending. There is very little empirical evidence, however, to suggest that group lending schemes offer a superior institutional design over lending programs that serve individual borrowers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): E, J, J2, J23, O, O1, O17
December 21, 2002 Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Jeannine Bailliu, John Murray A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes